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Trading access CurveGlobal Markets Turquoise. Personal investing. Start your journey here Personal investing hub. Tools Tools. Broker directory Broker directory. All articles All articles. Start your journey here Resources. Raise finance Raise finance. Trade Trade. Service Announcements Service Announcements.Last night was a bit of a wash for the RNC. The main prime time speech went over well, when it happened, but it turned out to be (partially) plagiarized.
The big nights will be Wednesday and Thursday, when PredictWise (i. The expectations for the convention are pretty low, meaning that it could be a gain for him, if he does well.
I will be back with daily updates in the Musing section as well as regular Tweets and Facebook updates. Site last updated at 8 PM ET yesterday, but I hope to have the data flowing in the next few hours. In the meanwhile, will tweet out updates if anything changes. But, should not be a huge worry.
UPDATE: all fixed by 11:30 AM ET today. Sorry for any issues Are prediction markets now too stable, because people trust them too much. I explore with Andrew Gelman in a new post at Slate. I know it is not as sexy or important as the president, but senate races are just really exciting. Wisconsin and Illinois are very likely Democrats gains from Republicans in blue states.
Nevada is now a tight hold for the Democrats. Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florid are all leaning Republican by a whisker. Ohio and North Carolina are leaning Republican a little more strongly. The chart tracks the probability of victory on PredictWise since we started state-by-state predictions on February 27, 2016.
iShares € High Yield Corp Bond UCITS ETF
I know that an efficient market should have everything priced in immediately, but the state-by-state predictions have slipped slightly above the national predictions in the last few days. She just needs to win one of those and she is president. At this point I have been constructing the predictions independently and they have stayed very consistent.
If this divergence continues I will become increasingly concerned about whether the national markets are suppressed. If there is a good lesson for American public opinion from Brexit it this. The two set of voters: leave and remain, live in a totally different reality. The remain voters got increasingly freaked out about the British economy as a possibility turned into a reality.
The leave voters, most of them, assume that it was meaningless fit of the elite bankers who were upset they did not get their way.
A small fraction of leave voter regret their vote. But, remain would most likely win a re-vote, because a huge number of non-voters feel silly for not voting remain. Brexit happened, what does that mean for the USA. This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit.
But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers. And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models). A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days.
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